01/03/10 :: [Cloud] The "Techtonic" Shift of 2010: the iTablet [permalink]
I don't know about you, but I feel ripped off. I got the incredible opportunity to live to 2010 and except for a couple things I can only buy technologies that were mostly available 10 years ago. I don't know what Apple will release this month: some talk about the iTablet, but it will certainly look like an iKindle, a larger iPhone. Whether the geeks like it or not, the computer has become a consumer product, driven by consumers who want to do what consumers expect to do, i.e. they never dream of becoming a sysadmin. The devices of this decade will be designed for humans by humans, not for geeks by geeks.
So what will be the characteristics of the devices (not computers) of this decade? That's quite easy:
- touch, touch, touch
- apps, apps, apps... hu?... I mean connected apps
- location, location, location
- no sysdamin required
Many of us would feel that this is back from the future, but let's face it, just compare using a browser based app and an iPhone app. Not convinced? Do you use Netflix? Just compare browsing Netflix with a... web browser and Microsoft media center. You get the picture, right?
In 2005, I was making fun of Microsoft's "SaaS" strategy. Shortly thereafter they changed the course and came out with a "Software+Services" strategy. Yes, that was the right move, but we all know how well Microsoft executes strategic moves.
In this new landscape devices will be easy to use, loaded with "apps+services". The browser is out, whether you like it or not, we are back to the wonderful idea of multi-platforms. Did I talk about form factor of an app? Cheap, small, downloadable. The "price" of an app: $1 or $2 sound reasonable, well suited to a mass market of hundreds of million of people. Who's going to buy a $60 box+DVDs running on an operating system that requires a Geek Squad just to keep running?
So here we are, at the onset of a tectonic shift (it has already happened, it will just become visible). Who's going to win? We know that won't be Microsoft, unfortunately for Seattle. Successful people at Microsoft are too busy boating and driving their fancy cars, they never use their own product, let alone watch how people are using them. Google may have bet on the wrong horse, the browser may be laid to REST in this decade. That prediction is easy to make: finger stokes are not RESTful and JavaScript can't access "local" information (accelerometers, location...).
So Steve Jobs may have done it again after the Apple II, the Mac, the Laser Printer, NeXT, the iFamily is breaking our industry's mold. Well done Steve.
If you want to see the future, just look at this app, that one too. Now, look at your browser... Do you have app-envy? I do.